ATP US OpenSemi-finalsQualifying🔵 Hard, Outdoor
L. Draxl
🇨🇦 L. Draxl
Canada
ATP #217
vs
A. Johnson
🇺🇸 A. Johnson
USA
ATP #799
Wednesday, 26 August 2026·23:45 CET
★ Our Pick · Match Winner

L. Draxl to Win

The ranking edge (#217 vs #799) makes L. Draxl the favourite, at a 77% win probability.

1.33
Best Odds
Value found: Bookmakers price L. Draxl to Win at 1.33 (implied 75.2%). Our experts give 77%, a fair price of 1.30 — an edge of 2.0 points.

Betting Predictions

Match Winner
L. Draxl to Win1.33
77% expert probability

Our experts give L. Draxl a 77% win probability on hard.

Implied 75%Select →
🔵Match Winner
A. Johnson to Win3.13
23% expert probability

Our experts give A. Johnson a 23% win probability on hard.

Implied 32%Select →
🔵Total Games
Total Games Over 19.51.48
62% expert probability

Our experts make this 62% likely.

Implied 68%Select →
🔵Total Sets
Total Sets Under 2.51.53
60% expert probability

Our experts make this 60% likely.

Implied 65%Select →
First Set
L. Draxl wins 1st set1.45
65% expert probability

Our experts make this 65% likely.

Implied 69%Select →
Set Betting
L. Draxl 2-01.93
46% expert probability

Our experts' most likely scoreline.

Implied 52%Select →
Straight Sets
L. Draxl in straight sets2.00
46% expert probability

46% to win without dropping a set.

Implied 50%Select →
Games Handicap
L. Draxl -3 games1.59
63% expert probability

Games spread for the favourite (market price).

Implied 63%Select →

Match Preview

L. Draxl takes on A. Johnson at the US Open, contested on hard courts. L. Draxl enters ranked #217 while A. Johnson sits at #799, a 582-place gulf that frames the matchup. It is a clash of contrasting recent fortunes, and the hard courts should have plenty to say about which way it turns.

L. Draxl is ranked #217 on the ATP tour with 255 ranking points.

A. Johnson is ranked #799 on the ATP tour with 35 ranking points.

L. Draxl and A. Johnson have no prior tour-level meetings, adding an unknown to the read. Weighing rankings, form and the surface, our experts make L. Draxl the favourite at 77% to win, with A. Johnson the live underdog if the price is right.

Why this pick

High

Ranking Advantage

L. Draxl (#217) is ranked 582 places above A. Johnson (#799).

The Players

L. Draxl
🇨🇦 L. Draxl
Canada

L. Draxl is a player from Canada, currently ranked ATP #217 with 255 ranking points.

Ranking
#217
Points
255

No surface data.

A. Johnson
🇺🇸 A. Johnson
USA

A. Johnson is a player from USA, currently ranked ATP #799 with 35 ranking points.

Ranking
#799
Points
35

No surface data.

Player Overview

🇨🇦 L. DraxlPlayer Overview
L. Draxl

L. Draxl is ranked ATP #217 with 255 ranking points.

Match Results: L. DraxlAll tournaments

No recent matches.

🇺🇸 A. JohnsonPlayer Overview
A. Johnson

A. Johnson is ranked ATP #799 with 35 ranking points.

Match Results: A. JohnsonAll tournaments

No recent matches.

Predictions are our experts' estimates for informational purposes. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.