ATP US OpenQuarter-finalsQualifying🔵 Hard, Outdoor
Z. Zhang
🇨🇳 Z. Zhang
China
ATP #154
vs
R. Sakamoto
🇯🇵 R. Sakamoto
Japan
ATP #157
Tuesday, 25 August 2026·00:05 CET
★ Our Pick · Match Winner

R. Sakamoto to Win

The bookmaker price makes R. Sakamoto the favourite here, at a 59% win probability, despite a lower ranking (#157 vs #154).

1.76
Best Odds
Value found: Bookmakers price R. Sakamoto to Win at 1.76 (implied 56.8%). Our experts give 59%, a fair price of 1.70 — an edge of 2.0 points.

Betting Predictions

Match Winner
Z. Zhang to Win2.02
41% expert probability

Our experts give Z. Zhang a 41% win probability on hard.

Implied 50%Select →
Match Winner
R. Sakamoto to Win1.76
59% expert probability

Our experts give R. Sakamoto a 59% win probability on hard.

Implied 57%Select →
🔵Total Games
Total Games Over 24.52.01
54% expert probability

Our experts make this 54% likely.

Implied 50%Select →
🔵Total Sets
Total Sets Under 2.51.65
58% expert probability

Our experts make this 58% likely.

Implied 61%Select →
First Set
R. Sakamoto wins 1st set1.81
52% expert probability

Our experts make this 52% likely.

Implied 55%Select →
Set Betting
R. Sakamoto 2-02.77
32% expert probability

Our experts' most likely scoreline.

Implied 36%Select →
Straight Sets
R. Sakamoto in straight sets3.00
31% expert probability

31% to win without dropping a set.

Implied 33%Select →
Games Handicap
R. Sakamoto +0.5 games1.76
57% expert probability

Games spread for the favourite (market price).

Implied 57%Select →

Match Preview

Z. Zhang takes on R. Sakamoto at the US Open, contested on hard courts. Z. Zhang enters ranked #154 while R. Sakamoto sits at #157, a closely-matched pairing on paper. It is a clash of contrasting recent fortunes, and the hard courts should have plenty to say about which way it turns.

R. Sakamoto is ranked #157 on the ATP tour with 357 ranking points.

Z. Zhang is ranked #154 on the ATP tour with 365 ranking points.

Z. Zhang and R. Sakamoto have no prior tour-level meetings, adding an unknown to the read. Weighing rankings, form and the surface, our experts make R. Sakamoto the favourite at 59% to win, with Z. Zhang the live underdog if the price is right.

Why this pick

Medium

Ranking Advantage

Z. Zhang (#154) is ranked 3 places above R. Sakamoto (#157).

The Players

Z. Zhang
🇨🇳 Z. Zhang
China

Z. Zhang is a player from China, currently ranked ATP #154 with 365 ranking points.

Ranking
#154
Points
365

No surface data.

R. Sakamoto
🇯🇵 R. Sakamoto
Japan

R. Sakamoto is a player from Japan, currently ranked ATP #157 with 357 ranking points.

Ranking
#157
Points
357

No surface data.

Player Overview

🇨🇳 Z. ZhangPlayer Overview
Z. Zhang

Z. Zhang is ranked ATP #154 with 365 ranking points.

Match Results: Z. ZhangAll tournaments

No recent matches.

🇯🇵 R. SakamotoPlayer Overview
R. Sakamoto

R. Sakamoto is ranked ATP #157 with 357 ranking points.

Match Results: R. SakamotoAll tournaments

No recent matches.

Predictions are our experts' estimates for informational purposes. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.