ATP US OpenFinalQualifying🔵 Hard, Outdoor
A. Dougaz
🇹🇳 A. Dougaz
Tunisia
ATP #520
vs
A. Guerrieri
🇮🇹 A. Guerrieri
Italy
ATP #187
Thursday, 27 August 2026·17:00 CET
★ Our Pick · Match Winner

A. Dougaz to Win

The bookmaker price makes A. Dougaz the favourite here, at a 55% win probability, despite a lower ranking (#520 vs #187).

1.87
Best Odds
Value found: Bookmakers price A. Dougaz to Win at 1.87 (implied 53.5%). Our experts give 55%, a fair price of 1.80 — an edge of 2.0 points.

Betting Predictions

Match Winner
A. Dougaz to Win1.87
55% expert probability

Our experts give A. Dougaz a 55% win probability on hard.

Implied 53%Select →
Match Winner
A. Guerrieri to Win1.87
45% expert probability

Our experts give A. Guerrieri a 45% win probability on hard.

Implied 53%Select →
🔵Total Games
Total Games Over 20.51.40
65% expert probability

Our experts make this 65% likely.

Implied 71%Select →
🔵Total Sets
Total Sets Under 2.51.56
59% expert probability

Our experts make this 59% likely.

Implied 64%Select →
First Set
A. Dougaz wins 1st set1.87
50% expert probability

Our experts make this 50% likely.

Implied 53%Select →
Set Betting
A. Dougaz 2-03.15
28% expert probability

Our experts' most likely scoreline.

Implied 32%Select →
Games Handicap
A. Dougaz -1 games2.00
50% expert probability

Games spread for the favourite (market price).

Implied 50%Select →

Match Preview

A. Dougaz takes on A. Guerrieri at the US Open, contested on hard courts. A. Dougaz enters ranked #520 while A. Guerrieri sits at #187, a 333-place gulf that frames the matchup. It is a clash of contrasting recent fortunes, and the hard courts should have plenty to say about which way it turns.

A. Dougaz is ranked #520 on the ATP tour with 84 ranking points.

A. Guerrieri is ranked #187 on the ATP tour with 301 ranking points.

A. Dougaz and A. Guerrieri have no prior tour-level meetings, adding an unknown to the read. Weighing rankings, form and the surface, our experts make A. Dougaz the favourite at 55% to win, with A. Guerrieri the live underdog if the price is right.

Why this pick

High

Ranking Advantage

A. Guerrieri (#187) is ranked 333 places above A. Dougaz (#520).

The Players

A. Dougaz
🇹🇳 A. Dougaz
Tunisia

A. Dougaz is a player from Tunisia, currently ranked ATP #520 with 84 ranking points.

Ranking
#520
Points
84

No surface data.

A. Guerrieri
🇮🇹 A. Guerrieri
Italy

A. Guerrieri is a player from Italy, currently ranked ATP #187 with 301 ranking points.

Ranking
#187
Points
301

No surface data.

Player Overview

🇹🇳 A. DougazPlayer Overview
A. Dougaz

A. Dougaz is ranked ATP #520 with 84 ranking points.

Match Results: A. DougazAll tournaments

No recent matches.

🇮🇹 A. GuerrieriPlayer Overview
A. Guerrieri

A. Guerrieri is ranked ATP #187 with 301 ranking points.

Match Results: A. GuerrieriAll tournaments

No recent matches.

Predictions are our experts' estimates for informational purposes. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.